欧洲光伏展闭幕主题词——降价

按照BHF银行Goetz Fischbeck的说法，为期一周的汉堡光伏展商，降价是一个主流的话题。

考虑到需求的下降和组件库存水位依旧很高，大陆一线组件制造商从展会开始的报价0.89欧（合1.21美金）降到最后的0.76欧（合1.04美金），而到最后一天，二线制造商已经开始报出低于0.7欧（合0.96美金）的价格了。

在展会开始的论坛上，来自LDK的Stuart Brannigan表示他坚信许多系统集成商从展会一开始就在等待组件价格能够报出地板价，而BHF银行Goetz Fischbeck也分析，所有来自中国大陆一线的制造商都愿意将2012年的出货价格压在低于0.7欧（合0.96美金），但这个价格是很难达让每个企业都做到盈亏平衡的，所以欧洲的企业难免在这样一波价格压力下遭受重创。

Fischbeck总结说，这场价格战刚刚开始，只有哪些有充足现金流并且能忍受可能长达2年亏损的企业才有可能存活下来。

所有的企业都表示现在都在重组运营方式以降低成本，德国的Conergy也刚刚宣布会关闭自己位于德国基地的硅片和电池厂，只保留组件的运营。

而德国本土的设备制造商也难免受到这场价格战带来的冲击，上周初，一份来自德国设备制造商协会的报告称，三季度设备订单与去年同期相比已经下降了56%。设备商Centrotherm和Manz都表示对未来订单持乐观态度，但Fischbeck则显然没有那么乐观，因为他们也在面对来自大陆设备商日益增加的竞争压力，分析认为来自大陆本土的设备供应商已经从大陆一线制造商那儿抢到了30%的市场份额，而在二线或者三线的制造上的市场份额更高。

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Cold winds off the harbor blew hard as the 26th EU PVSEC closes in Hamburg. Visitor numbers were stagnant and many reported slow business and observed massively slashed module prices.

With visitor numbers not increasing, EU PVSEC has witnessed module prices falling rapidly. Image: EU PVSEC.During the week-long trade fair, according to Goetz Fischbeck from BHF Bank, falling prices was the major story.

Due to slow demand and high inventory levels, Chinese Tier 1 manufacturers lowered their prices during the show from 0.89 euro cents per watt peak (p/Wp) on the Monday to 0.76 p/Wp by Thursday. By the final day of the show, Tier 2 manufacturers were selling their modules below 0.70 euro cents p/Wp.

At the first business forum held at EU PVSEC, Chinese manufacturer LDK's Stuart Brannigan said that he believed that many integrators were waiting for prices to hit rock bottom before committing.

BHF’s Fischbeck, in his analysis, continues that at these pricing levels, for 2012 deliveries, "all top manufactures from China agree that prices for modules will be below 0.70 euro cents p/Wp," which is less than breakeven prices. European manufacturers may also suffer under these price pressures.

"The shakeout of the photovoltaic manufactures has just begun," concludes Fischbeck. "Only the companies with the strongest balance sheets that can endure potentially two years with significant losses stand a chance to survive."

Companies are currently reorganizing operations to reduce costs. Conergy announced today that it will shut down its wafer and cell operations in Germany, affecting around 300 workers.

German equipment manufacturers haven’t been spared the pain. At the beginning of the week, a report by the German equipment manufactures association (VDMA) has shown orders in third quarter of 2011 have fallen year-on-year by 56 percent.

"I’m optimistic that orders will pick up again soon," Peter Fath, spokesman from the VDMA photovoltaic section and CTO Centrotherm told pv magazine. Manz also reported that while orders were not flowing in, good interest was shown in its Copper Indium Gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) thin-film turnkey line.

Fischbeck is less optimistic for the German equipment suppliers, because they are facing increasing competition. "Chinese equipment suppliers have been able to capture up to 30 percent market share with the Tier 1 manufacturers from China and even higher shares with Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufactures."