全球光伏逆变器收益下滑皆因德国市场沉寂无声

The PV inverter market declined once again in Q3'11 with industry revenues in Euros falling by over 20% year-on-year according to the latest quarterly report from IMS Research. A lethargic quarter in Germany was the main contributor where third quarter revenues were over 50% down compared to Q3'10. Although this is a dire statistic for the industry to consider, a positive is that prices stabilised in the third quarter, a welcome relief for suppliers that have had to endure heavy price erosion since the turn of the year. However, average prices are still 15% lower than in 2010.

According to IMS Research, the market was limited by the lack of activity in Germany where shipments were over 1 GW lower than in Q3'10, contributing to global shipments being 8% down year-on-year. Shipments had still grown for the last two consecutive quarters, however revenues decreased because of falling prices. Although Q3'11 shipments failed to hit 2010 quarterly levels, prices stabilized during the quarter, indicating a healthier level of inventory in the market.

IMS Research's quarterly PV Inverter Supply & Demand report, which collects revenue and shipment data from more than 90% of the industry, shows that exchange rates were also a contributing factor to revenue and price changes in Q3. “The majority of inverters are still sold in Europe where the average price per watt stabilised last quarter if measured in Euros. However, companies from outside the Eurozone realizing their revenues in dollars may still have felt the price pressure as Dollar prices fell by 5% compared to Q2'11 due to changes in exchange rates”, commented Tom Haddon, PV Market Analyst at IMS Research. “Price pressure will continue to be a prominent feature of the market for some time and it wouldn't be wise for PV inverter suppliers to count on prices staying at this level for long”, added Haddon.

Despite the sluggish performance of the German market in Q3, market leader SMA Solar Technology's market share held stable at over 30% of revenues due to an increased focus on 'foreign' markets. “Whilst SMA has always been strong in its domestic market, it is now turning its attentions to the faster growing emerging markets, with the Americas becoming a larger proportion of its business. In order to maintain or increase market share this strategy will need to continue”, concluded Haddon.

Despite declining shipments in Q3'11, IMS Research forecasts that annual inverter shipments will still grow in 2011 and break the 25 GW mark as new incentives in Asia and an end of year rally in Germany (before the January 1st FIT cut) help to stimulate demand.

据IMS Research最新发布的季度报告显示，2011年三季度光伏逆变器市场再次下滑，产业收益年同比下跌20%。究其主因在于德国市场三季度的表现极为平淡，较去年三季度的产业收益相比，跌幅逾50%。尽管统计数据不容乐观，但三季度价格已趋于稳定，自年初以来一直饱受价格侵蚀的供应商们终于如释重负。然而，逆变器平均价格仍比2010年低15%。

据IMS Research透露，逆变器市场受到德国光伏市场的“毫无作为”影响，出货量虽然超过1GW，但仍低于2010年三季度的出货量，这使得全球出货量也同比下滑8%。出货量已连续两个季度呈现持续增长势头，然而由于价格不断下滑，收益也因此减少。尽管2011年三季度的出货量未能达到2010年同期水平，但三季度产品价格趋稳，这表明市场库存量维持在一个健康的水平内。
　　
IMS的光伏逆变器供需季度报告采集了逾90%的产业收益及出货量数据，报告显示汇率也是影响收益及价格变动的因素之一。 “大部分的逆变器仍然卖到欧洲市场，如果按欧元计算的话，上季度逆变器每瓦均价趋于稳定。然而，美元汇率较二季度下跌5%，欧元区以外的光伏企业（以美元计算）仍能感受到价格压力，”光伏市场分析师Tom Haddon评论道。价格压力将在未来的一段时间内继续成为市场的主导因素，并且并不建议光伏逆变器供应商持有价格将在很长时间内维持在这一水平的观点。 ” 　　

尽管三季度德国光伏市场表现疲软，然而海外市场关注度有所增加，逆变器龙头企业SMA Solar仍保有一定的市场占有率且收益逾30%。 “SMA公司在国内市场的地位始终牢不可破，如今该公司正将注意力转向快速发展的新兴市场，美国市场的业务领域也在不断扩大。为了维持或增加市场占有率，公司将继续执行这一市场策略。”Haddon表示。　　

尽管2011年三季度出货量有所下滑，但IMS预测，随着亚洲市场新补贴政策的出台以及年末德国市场的抢装潮（赶在1月补贴削减以前），2011年逆变器出货量仍将出现增长并打破25GW的记录。